Cc9f267dcClaimRumors suggest that hundreds of new mathematical proofs published by OpenAI were solved by a new, unreleased model using a single promptAgreeDisagree
Cc9f267dcClaimThe organization Epoch AI reported that the cost for a given AI capability was dropping by 47% per quarter at one pointAgreeDisagree
Cc9f267dcClaimA renowned CRISPR expert from MIT described a recent release from Anthropic related to CRISPR as a major breakthroughAgreeDisagree
Cc9f267dcClaimKalshi published a calibration study based on 2.2 million data points from its markets.AgreeDisagree
Cc9f267dcClaimThe Kalshi study found that its prediction markets were almost perfectly calibrated to the actual outcomes of events.AgreeDisagree
Cc9f267dcClaimThe Kalshi study suggests that institutional-sized trading volume is not required for a well-calibrated market.AgreeDisagree
Cc9f267dcClaimA Kalshi study found that its markets can be well-calibrated with as little as $50,000 to $60,000 in trading volume.AgreeDisagree
Cc9f267dcClaimThe Shielded CSV paper was co-authored by Liam Egan, Robin Linus, and Jonas Nick.AgreeDisagree
Cc9f267dcClaimHistorical data from the CrisisDB database shows that 60% of societies with K-shaped dynamics experienced state collapse or disintegrationAgreeDisagree
Cc9f267dcClaimHistorical data from the CrisisDB database shows that 17% of societies with K-shaped dynamics experienced systemic violence against elitesAgreeDisagree
Cc9f267dcClaimResearch from the CrisisDB database indicates that as governments grow larger, they are more likely to be used to create disparate economic outcomesAgreeDisagree
Cc9f267dcClaimHistorical data from the CrisisDB database shows that 40% of societies with K-shaped dynamics experienced assassinations of their rulersAgreeDisagree
Cc9f267dcClaimHistorical data from the CrisisDB database shows that 75% of societies with K-shaped dynamics ended with revolution, civil war, or bothAgreeDisagree
Cc9f267dcClaimPeter Turchin and his colleagues at the Complexity Science Institute in Vienna have researched a dynamic called the 'wealth pump.'AgreeDisagree
Cc9f267dcClaimAI models like AlphaFold enable faster and cheaper design of molecules and novel proteinsAgreeDisagree
