On October 2, 2026, the Ohio Casino Control Commission sent cease-and-desist letters to 10 prediction market operators demanding they halt unlicensed sports event contracts and provide written compliance confirmation by October 16, 2026

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Judge Alvin K. Hellerstein ruled under Federal Rule of Civil Procedure 60 that newly acquired knowledge of facts existing when the January 2025 consent order was entered does not constitute a significant change in factual circumstances

The CFTC filed a lawsuit in 2022 alleging Gemini Trust Company made false or misleading statements of material fact in 2017 regarding a Bitcoin futures contract relying on Gemini auction prices

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved Kalshi's Bitcoin BTCPERP contract on May 29, 2026, marking the first approval of perpetual futures on a regulated U.S. exchange

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission cleared perpetual futures contracts earlier in 2026 for both Coinbase and Kalshi, allowing Webull to plug into Kalshi's approved venue without seeking its own regulatory approval

On September 25, 2026, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit ruled in KalshiEx LLC v. Schuler that sports event contracts are not swaps under federal law and that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt Ohio sports gaming laws

On October 9, 2026, the CFTC issued an interim final rule excluding casino-style gambling from the federal definition of swap while publishing a proposed rule explicitly incorporating event contracts

Under the Webull-Kalshi partnership, Webull provides the distribution and customer base while prediction-market operator Kalshi acts as wholesale infrastructure by supplying the Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated venue

The Ohio Casino Control Commission warned prediction market operators that non-compliance could result in civil financial penalties equaling Ohio-generated revenue, as well as state criminal penalties for unlicensed bookmaking

Polymarket US seeks declaratory relief stating Ohio's gambling laws are unconstitutional and preempted, alongside preliminary and permanent injunctions against Ohio officials

Polymarket US, operating through CFTC-registered QCX LLC, filed a federal lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Ohio on October 16, 2026, against Interim Attorney General Andy Wilson and the Ohio Casino Control Commission

Commodity Futures Trading Commission staff permitted Coinbase to route U.S. clients to perpetual futures listed on Coinbase's offshore affiliate Deribit

Polymarket US argues under the Dormant Commerce Clause that Ohio's licensing rules unconstitutionally favor in-state physical footprints and restrict market operations to Ohio residents

Polymarket US argues in its complaint that the CFTC's October 9, 2026 regulatory actions—an interim final rule and a proposed rule—altered the legal landscape established by the Sixth Circuit's September 25 ruling against Kalshi

Polymarket US asserts that the Commodity Exchange Act grants the CFTC exclusive regulatory jurisdiction over event contracts listed on federally designated exchanges

As of October 21, 2026, an Ohio Casino Control Commission spokesperson stated that one notified prediction market operator confirmed compliance while two operators filed lawsuits against the state

CME filed a lawsuit against the CFTC on June 18, 2026, arguing that perpetual contracts without expiry dates must legally be classified as swaps rather than futures

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission responded in court on October 16, 2026, asking to reject CME's lawsuit filed on June 18, on the grounds that CME failed to demonstrate imminent competitive harm

Prediction market operators rely on single CFTC registration to maintain nationwide liquidity, but risk facing individual state licensing regimes and local legal costs if states successfully enforce local gambling laws

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit ruled in favor of Kalshi against New Jersey on federal preemption, prompting New Jersey to petition the U.S. Supreme Court for review

If Ohio successfully enforces its cease-and-desist orders, state gaming regulators nationwide could replicate the Sixth Circuit's legal template to target prediction market platforms