Internal Trump campaign polling indicated that core demographic groups, including young voters and non-college-educated white voters, defected from Republicans before the 2026 midterms

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Internal Trump campaign polling conducted over the summer of 2026 showed that defecting 2024 Trump voters prioritized ending the war in Iran

Internal Trump campaign polling in December showed Donald Trump losing ground with voters on immigration and the economy

No Democratic presidential nominee had won the white voting demographic since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964

Donald Trump won 46 percent of the Latino vote in the 2024 presidential election, the highest share achieved by any Republican presidential candidate

Democratic candidates won voters aged 18 to 29 by 48 percentage points in the 2026 midterm elections

Democratic candidates split the white vote evenly with Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections

In 2024 presidential exit polls, Latino voters identified prices and the economy as their primary concern

The Democratic 48-point margin among voters aged 18 to 29 in 2026 exceeded Barack Obama's youth margin in the 2008 presidential election

In Ballot Bench's House and Senate races, frontier artificial intelligence agents outperformed human election modelers while performing slightly worse than prediction markets

Thoughtful developed Ballot Bench, a benchmark evaluating nine frontier artificial intelligence agents forecasting the 2026 United States midterm elections

The voting margin among young male voters in the 2026 midterms swung 36 percentage points away from Republicans compared to the 2024 presidential election

In Ballot Bench's Senate forecasting, Claude Fable 5.1 achieved the highest Brier score among artificial intelligence models while trailing human forecaster Nate Silver

In Ballot Bench, OpenAI's GPT-6.1 SOL aggregated election forecasts by analyzing the historical error shifts of human modelers over the decade prior to 2026

Meta's Muse Wonder coding model in the Muse Code harness submitted skewed 2024 results for 800 election forecasts within three minutes due to a task completion goal condition

Polling by Pew, CNBC, and Fox News identified corruption and political money as the highest-ranking issue among surveyed Americans

Tony Fabrizio served simultaneously as Donald Trump's chief pollster and as a paid consultant for companies including PepsiCo and Pfizer

Following the 2012 presidential election, the Republican National Committee produced an autopsy report analyzing Republican outreach to minority voters

Pre-election polls for the 2026 midterm elections on average showed a plus-nine Democratic generic ballot

Pre-election polling for the 2026 midterms undercounted Democrats by a larger magnitude than 2016 and 2024 polls undercounted Republicans

Pre-election polling for the 2026 midterms underestimated Democratic support and enthusiasm by just over 4 percentage points