The TPLF-led alliance's campaign to overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is justified

Tigrayan forces seized three airports and clashed with Ethiopian federal troops on 23 September, signalling a major new offensive and further unravelling the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement. The participation of other alliance members remains unclear, while Ethiopia's allegation of Eritrean support is denied by Eritrea. The African Union urged Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt to refrain from actions that could undermine regional stability after diplomatic expulsions involving the three countries; allegations of foreign support for combatants remain unestablished.

Seven armed organisations have formed an alliance seeking to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government. Its members include the Tigray People's Liberation Front and the Amhara Fano National Movement, which fought on opposing sides during the Tigray war. The alliance has discussed political and military cooperation, but its cohesion and operational capacity remain uncertain. Ethiopia alleges Eritrean financial support, which Eritrea has repeatedly denied.

The range of ongoing internal armed and political conflicts in Ethiopia, including tensions and armed mobilisation involving regional forces such as the Tigray People's Liberation Front and the Amhara Fano movement, and their bearing on the stability of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's federal government.