The TPLF's return to war will do more harm than good for Tigray

Tigrayan forces seized three airports and clashed with Ethiopian federal troops on 23 September, signalling a major new offensive and further unravelling the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement. The participation of other alliance members remains unclear, while Ethiopia's allegation of Eritrean support is denied by Eritrea. The African Union urged Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt to refrain from actions that could undermine regional stability after diplomatic expulsions involving the three countries; allegations of foreign support for combatants remain unestablished.

The range of ongoing internal armed and political conflicts in Ethiopia, including tensions and armed mobilisation involving regional forces such as the Tigray People's Liberation Front and the Amhara Fano movement, and their bearing on the stability of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's federal government.