The US should engage in direct diplomacy with the Lukashenko regime

The diplomacy lens matters because this was not only a military pause. It was also a negotiated pause assembled through intermediaries, public statements, and a still-uncertain next phase.

U.S. envoy John Coale resumed negotiations with Alexander Lukashenko's government over political-prisoner releases, frozen Belarusian assets and sanctions relief. Belarus subsequently released 25 prisoners, while Washington agreed to remove sanctions from Lakokraska and Bellesbumprom. Human-rights organisations say more than 900 political prisoners remain imprisoned and that new arrests continue.