The July 2024 provisional agreement between Manila and Beijing has failed to secure peace

The diplomacy lens matters because this was not only a military pause. It was also a negotiated pause assembled through intermediaries, public statements, and a still-uncertain next phase.

The overlapping territorial and maritime claims in the South China Sea, principally between China and Southeast Asian states including the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia, encompassing disputed islands, reefs and shoals, and the naval, coastguard and diplomatic confrontations arising from them.