Deividas Matulionis, national security adviser to the Lithuanian president, stated on October 19, 2026, that Russia is a likely suspect in the October 18 Vilnius arson attempt, though official responsibility remains unestablished

An ongoing armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine that was sparked with Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and escalated into a full-scale invasion in February 2022, resulting in widespread casualties, displacement and significant geopolitical consequences for Europe and the world.