US and Israeli military strikes since 2025 have reduced the risk of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon

Whether the June 2025 strikes on Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, and the strikes during the 2026 war, have made an Iranian nuclear weapon less likely, or have raised the long-term risk by ending inspections and strengthening Iran's motive to build a deterrent.

The United States and Iran should separate fertiliser-transit arrangements from nuclear negotiations

Iran suspended cooperation with the IAEA in July 2025 after Israeli and US strikes on its nuclear facilities

The IAEA has not carried out verification activities in Iran since February 28, 2026 and cannot confirm the size or location of its enriched uranium stockpile

An AP fact check in June 2026 found no public evidence that Iran had decided to build a nuclear weapon

As of June 2026, Iran had not given IAEA inspectors access to the nuclear sites hit by the strikes

The IAEA estimated that Iran held 440.9 kg of uranium enriched up to 60% before the June 2025 strikes

Benjamin Netanyahu has warned since the 1990s that Iran was only a few years or less from a nuclear weapon

The United States told the IAEA Board of Governors in June 2025 that Iran's 60% enrichment had no credible civilian justification

The IAEA reported in May 2025 that Iran held 408.6 kg of uranium enriched up to 60%

US intelligence assessed in March 2025 that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon

The United States should recognise Iran's right to enrich uranium under a peace agreement

Iran should substantially reduce its enrichment capacity as a condition for ending the war

A settlement based on limits to enrichment is preferable to demanding that Iran abandon enrichment entirely

Iran should restore international nuclear inspections as a condition of sanctions relief

A peace deal with Iran is ineffective without immediate nuclear concessions

Iran should accept civilian nuclear limits to end the war

Joint US-Israeli military operations against Iran are justified to prevent a nuclear weapon

Iran should grant the IAEA immediate access to its military-struck nuclear sites

The UN should have granted a travel ban waiver for Iran's nuclear chief

The IAEA Board was justified in reporting Iran to the UN Security Council for nuclear-safeguards non-compliance