In the October 2026 PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, 51% of likely voters expected the Democratic candidate to win their local congressional district race, compared to 46% who expected the Republican candidate to win

Federal and state elections held midway through a presidential term, deciding control of Congress and many governorships. Turnout falls well below presidential years and the president's party usually loses ground, which makes them a standing referendum on the sitting administration.