Marist Institute director Lee Miringoff noted that tariffs, the Iran war, the general economy, and rising gas prices were key factors depressing President Donald Trump's approval ratings in October 2026

The armed conflict between the United States and Iran and the political fight it set off at home, from strikes and the naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz to negotiations over Iran's nuclear program. Debated through war powers, munitions stocks and household costs.

Federal and state elections held midway through a presidential term, deciding control of Congress and many governorships. Turnout falls well below presidential years and the president's party usually loses ground, which makes them a standing referendum on the sitting administration.