Among the 21% of likely voters who had already cast their ballots before October 27, 2026, the PBS News/NPR/Marist poll conducted Oct. 19-20, 2026 showed Democrats leading Republicans 68% to 31%

Federal and state elections held midway through a presidential term, deciding control of Congress and many governorships. Turnout falls well below presidential years and the president's party usually loses ground, which makes them a standing referendum on the sitting administration.