Rollup stages mathematical model

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Vitalik Buterin’s simplified mathematical mode assumes each security‑council member has an independent 10% chance of liveness or safety failure

Ethereum rollups at Stage 1 can fail if the proof system fails and three or more security council members are unavailable to override the failure, or if six or more council members are compromised and force an incorrect decision

Vitalik Buterin’s mathematical model shows that projects should skip Stage 0 and start directly at Stage 1, where security becomes stronger once the proof system reaches a certain reliability threshold

Vitalik Buterin advises against prematurely advancing Ethereum rollups to Stage 2, especially when work to move to stage 2 happens at the expense of work to harden the underlying proof system

Ethereum rollups at Stage 2 can fail only if the underlying proof system itself failss

Ethereum rollups at Stage 0 can fail when at least four out of seven security council members are compromised

Ethereum rollups at Stage 0 are significantly more vulnerable, with a failure probability of 0.2728%.

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